(ConservativeUnit)- President Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to win re-election this November.
Betfair, a betting exchange based in Europe, said on Wednesday said Trump has now overtaken Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the betting favorite to win the 2020 presidential election.
Trump’s updated odds are now even, or 1-1, while Biden’s odds are 21-20. This means that a $100 wager on Trump would net a bettor $100 if he were to win. Meanwhile, a similar $100 wager on Biden would net a bettor $105.
Betfair Exchange announced that four different bets of more than 10,000 pounds, or $13,362, were placed overnight on their platform, and three of those were on Trump. Over the weekend, the betting exchange accepted its largest bet on the U.S. presidential election so far, a 50,000-pound wager on Trump.
Trump has overcome enormous long-shot odds just a few weeks ago. Because of the large bets placed recently on Trump, he was able to overtake his challenger in terms of betting odds.
Darren Hughes, who is a spokesperson for Flutter Entertainment unit Betfair Exchange, explained:
“In August, Trump had the worst odds for re-election of any sitting president in history and defeat to Biden was looking increasingly likely.”
Of course, a betting favorite doesn’t always win the game, match or election. In fact, a lot of time, sportsbooks such as Betfair will adjust the odds to reflect who they think will attract the most wagers — and not necessarily who they think will win.
That being said, it is very telling that Trump is garnering so much interest and attention from the betting public. In many ways, it reflects the overall sentiment that Trump has made waves in recent weeks, and his message is starting to resonate with voters.
The major national presidential polls are pretty much unchanged at this point. For example, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll released on Wednesday shows that 47% of registered voters currently say they will vote for Biden. At the same time, only 40% of registered voters say they will vote for Trump in November.
That 7% disparity is a substantial lead in polling terms, especially with only two months left until election day on November 3.
That being said, Trump has made a lot of progress in other polls that have sought to uncover the “hidden voters” who often aren’t participants in these major polls.
For example, Emerson Polling data showed that Biden is leading 49% to 47% — a mere 2 percentage point difference that is well within the acceptable margin of error for polling.
In addition, the Talfagar Group revealed data that shows that Trump is head of Biden in some of the major battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Talfagar Group was the only major pollster to correctly predict that Trump would win Michigan in the 2016 election.
The problem with major polls is they often only include people who pay attention to mainstream media and are heavily interested in politics, and these people often lean more liberal than conservative.