(ConservativeUnit.com)- According to a running average of polls at Real Clear Politics, the polls in key swing states are almost identical to polls taken in 2016 which suggested Hillary Clinton would win. Real Clear Politics shows that in the most competitive swing states, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina, Biden holds roughly the same size lead Hillary Clinton did last time around.
The RCP average polling numbers show Biden four points ahead in these states, compared to Clinton’s 3.5-point lead four years ago. It means that Biden is only 0.5 points ahead of the Democratic candidate who ultimately lost in key swing states and failed to win the 2016 presidential election.
Could 2020 see another surprise Trump victory?
Polls in 2016 were criticized for being wildly inaccurate, though, on a national basis, they correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote. Where the polls failed, however, was in swing states. Clinton was widely considered the most likely contender to win the election, but the “Shy Trump Vote” phenomenon ultimately tipped the Republican candidate over the edge.
The Trafalgar Group was one of the few polling companies to correctly predict that President Trump would win in key swing states like Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the day before the presidential election. The Georgia-based polling group has been described as “outliers with an uncanny knack for accurately sampling Trump vote,” and several polls recently published by the organization have suggested the president is on track to win important swing states.
Speaking to Fox News recently, chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group said that he predicted the president will win the November election with an electoral college tally of “a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is.”
The undercurrent Cahaly is referring to is the so-called “Shy Trump Vote,” which consists of those who will vote for the president without telling pollsters that they intend to. One of the primary reasons why people do not tell pollsters how they intend to vote – which leads to inaccurate polls in swing states showing the Democrats will win – is because of the violent and vicious backlash from far-left activists and Democrats against people and companies who announce their support for the president.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,” Cahaly told Fox. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.”
With polls showing almost the same numbers in key swing states this time around as in 2016, and with the president’s campaign team registering huge numbers of new Republicans in these states, could the president be on track to upset the political establishment with another surprise victory?